Market data current as of 21 August 2026.
Green coffee has rallied hard since June 2026, but the headline price is not what sets your cost per bag. Two things do: which origin group your blend leans on, and how much weight the coffee loses in the roaster. In June the gap between the dearest and cheapest origin groups was more than 155 cents a pound.
The short version:
Prices are back near the top of their range after a short, sharp dip. The December 2026 arabica contract reached 340 cents a pound in the week to 11 August and settled at 312.8 cents on 11 August 2026. It has kept climbing since: the same contract settled at 322.65 cents on 21 August 2026, about 3 percent above the 11 August print. Two months earlier the market looked very different.
The International Coffee Organization’s composite indicator price averaged 248.90 US cents per pound in June 2026, and fell to 231.96 cents on 9 June, its lowest in nearly two years. It then rebounded 17.4 percent to close that month at 272.39 cents, and has kept climbing since.
So a buyer who quoted a bag in early June and a buyer who quoted the same bag in August are working from very different numbers. The ICO composite moved 17.4 percent inside June alone, and the December arabica contract has since traded as high as 340 cents. That is the practical problem, and it is why TiA Coffee talks with partners about planning windows rather than the daily print.
Every figure in this section is a market print with a date attached. The sections below hold up longer.
Origin is the largest cost variable in a bulk order, and each group moves on its own. The ICO tracks four separately, and in June 2026 they were nowhere near each other.
| Coffee group | June 2026 average (US cents/lb) | Typical role in a blend |
|---|---|---|
| Colombian Milds | 324.60 | Bright, clean top notes; single origin offers |
| Other Milds | 307.83 | Washed Central Americans; balance and sweetness |
| Brazilian Naturals | 272.01 | Chocolate and nut base; the backbone of most espresso blends |
| Robustas | 169.39 | Body and crema; volume and cost control |
Source: ICO Coffee Market Report, June 2026.
The spread between Colombian Milds and Robustas that month was 155.21 cents per pound. Two blends can sit at the same roast level, in the same bag, on the same shelf, and be more than a dollar and a half apart on green cost alone.
This is where a roaster earns its keep. When one origin runs hot, the flavor target can often be held by rebalancing components rather than raising the price. TiA Coffee builds blends this way on purpose, so the cup a partner approved in month one still tastes the same in month twelve.
Truthfully, there are limits. A named single origin Colombian is a named single origin Colombian, and if that is the brand promise, the cost follows the origin. That is a conversation worth having before the label is printed.
Five forces are doing most of the work, and only two of them are about farming.
The ICO names weather as the principal driver of the June turn. Heavy rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest growing region, slowed the harvest and affected bean quality. By 24 June the harvest was 44 percent complete, against 51 percent a year earlier and a five-year average of 47 percent.
Forecasters are unusually confident about what comes next. The Japan Meteorological Agency on 10 June and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on 11 June both reported 67 percent confidence in a Super El Niño, which the ICO notes is the highest confidence level on record.
A 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck Colombia on 10 August 2026. Reporting named Caldas, Risaralda, Quindío, Valle del Cauca, Antioquia and Chocó among the affected departments, several of which are significant coffee growers. Terminal operations at Buenaventura, the port that handles most Colombian coffee exports, were temporarily suspended.
Combined ICE certified stocks of arabica and robusta fell to 1.09 million bags on 30 June, their lowest level since February 2024. Thin exchange stocks remove the market’s shock absorber, so every weather headline moves price further than it otherwise would.
The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed from 28 February 2026, forcing Asia to Europe shipping onto the Cape of Good Hope route and adding 10 to 14 days to transit times. From mid to late February the ICO recorded bunker fuel up 68 percent, container spot rates roughly doubled, and fertilizer up 25 percent.
A gradual reopening followed on 22 and 23 June, after the US and Iran reached agreement on 17 June, but attacks on two ships on 25 and 27 June restored the risk premium within days. Coffee travels a long way before it reaches a roaster, and freight rides on every pound.
After two consecutive years of high prices, growers are well capitalized and in no hurry to sell. Analysts point to slow farmer selling as a real factor in the recent rally, separate from the size of the crop.
A record crop is coming. The USDA’s Coffee: World Markets and Trade, July 2026 release forecasts world production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27, a record and 10.8 million bags above the previous year, on record output in Brazil, Ethiopia, Uganda and Vietnam.
Brazil alone is forecast at a record 71.9 million bags, with arabica rebounding 9.5 million bags to 47.5 million after five years of underperformance. Global ending stocks are forecast to rise for a second consecutive year, to 26.3 million bags, although USDA expects them to stay below the long-term average after a 15.5 million bag drawdown between 2020/21 and 2024/25.
None of that has arrived yet, which is why the current rally is being driven by weather and logistics risk rather than by the size of the crop.
A one dollar per pound move in green costs you more than a dollar per pound of finished coffee, because roasting removes weight. Continuous industrial arabica roasting loses 15 to 19 percent of the bean's weight, according to kinetics research published in Engenharia Agrícola. Where a roaster lands inside that range is not arbitrary. Darker roasts lose more, and robusta loses more than arabica at the same roast level. TiA Coffee roasts to medium and never to a dark, smoky finish, on the view that scorching a bean flattens the notes you paid for and hides nothing worth hiding, and our blends are arabica-led. Both of those put our loss at the lower end. Every pound in the bag started as more than a pound in the sack.
Here is what a $1.00/lb move in green costs at the bag, using 16 percent roast loss, which is where a medium, arabica-led roast lands:
| Bag size | Roasted weight | Green needed | Added cost per bag |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 oz | 0.75 lb | 0.89 lb | $0.89 |
| 1 lb | 1.00 lb | 1.19 lb | $1.19 |
| 2 lb | 2.00 lb | 2.38 lb | $2.38 |
| 5 lb | 5.00 lb | 5.95 lb | $5.95 |
Two things follow. Small bags absorb price moves more comfortably in absolute terms, and a 5 lb food service bag is where a swing gets noticed fastest. If your margin is built on a 12 oz retail bag at a fixed shelf price, a 50 cent green move takes about 45 cents off your gross margin per bag. This market has moved more than that since June.
This is arithmetic, not a quote. Packaging, labor and freight sit on top, and they move on their own schedule.
The brands that handle a volatile market best are not the ones who time it. They are the ones who take the timing question off the table.
That last one is the most common surprise in this business, and it is worth asking every roaster you talk to, including us. There is more on how this works in TiA Coffee’s wholesale coffee program.
TiA Coffee is a family roastery in Honeoye Falls, NY, in the Greater Rochester area, and the people who answer these questions are the people who roast and pack the coffee.
Our team brings more than 25 years of blending experience, and most of what we do about price volatility happens in the blend rather than on the invoice. When an origin runs hot, we rebalance toward the same cup instead of quietly raising the price or quietly lowering the quality.
The concrete terms, so you can plan against them:
To be transparent about our scope, there are a few things we do not make in-house: flavored coffee of any kind, whether artificial or natural, K-Cups or single-serve pods, instant coffee, and vacuum-sealed brick packaging. The only flavor in a TiA bag comes from the beans themselves. If flavored coffee is central to your brand, we are probably not the right fit, and we would rather say so up front.
Smooth. Balanced. Never bitter or sour. That is what we hold steady, whatever the market does.
If you are building a brand rather than buying by the case, our private label coffee program covers how the same economics work with your name on the bag. You can also read about the coffees TiA roasts.
Published prices like ICE arabica futures and the ICO composite indicator are for green, unroasted coffee. Your price includes roast loss, which runs 15 to 19 percent in industrial arabica roasting and sits at the lower end for our medium, arabica-led profiles, plus freight, packaging, labor and the roaster’s margin. The market price is the starting input, not the finished cost.
Rarely, and this is not a trick. Roasters buy green ahead of use, so the coffee in your next order was likely bought weeks or months ago at the price prevailing then. Falling markets reach invoices on a lag, and rising ones do too.
50 lb per SKU for our house blends, and 100 lb per SKU for a custom blend. Those quantities let emerging brands launch without committing to a pallet. Pricing starts at $10.50 per pound depending on blend and volume, excluding packaging materials, labor and freight.
Sometimes, and it depends on what you have promised your customers. A blend can usually be rebalanced to hold the same flavor target at a lower green cost. A named single origin cannot, because the origin is the product. Decide which one you are selling before the label is printed.
No. TiA Coffee does not produce flavored coffee, artificial or natural. The chocolate, caramel and toasted nut notes in our blends come from the beans and the roast profile, not from added flavoring. If flavored coffee is core to your line, we will say so early rather than take the order.
Far enough that you are never ordering in a hurry. For most partners that means a rolling quarterly view of volume, with orders placed on a steady rhythm. Predictable volume is what lets a roaster buy green well, and that shows up in your pricing.
If you are working out what coffee should cost you this year, we are glad to walk through it, whether or not you end up roasting with TiA Coffee. The fastest next step is a short call. Reply with a couple of times that work for you and we will get on the calendar.
We would love to hear what you are building. We will be back to you within one business day.
Thomas Zahavi is the founder of TiA Coffee, a family-owned specialty roastery in Honeoye Falls, NY, in the Greater Rochester area. He works on green sourcing and blend development alongside the TiA team, and started the company after years of looking for a smooth, balanced cup that was never bitter or sour.
